Dan Loeb’s 3Q18 Letter: Market Outlook and American Express

Review and Outlook In January, fueled by tax cuts and synchronized global expansion, PMIs rose, economic growth estimates were revised upwards along with corporate earnings, and stocks surged across the board, especially growth stocks In February, volatility spiked to record levels and stocks dropped precipitously after a series of technical dominoes fell into place After […]

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Joel Greenblatt’s Market Observations

US Equity Markets Remain Very Expensive (based on our 28-year valuation history) S&P 500 and Russell 1000 are both in the 15th percentile towards expensive When markets have been at these levels in the past, one-year forward returns have averaged 2-4% and two-year forward returns have averaged 7-9%, which is well below normal returns historically […]

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Market Cheat Sheet Oct. 18, 2018

Track the Markets: Winners and Losers; Compare the performance of selected global stock indexes, bond ETFs, currencies and commodities (YTD and Current Quarter) – WSJ “Current stretch of European underperformance is unprecedented both in length and magnitude; earnings recovery is coming back very strongly and Europe’s operational leverage is vastly underappreciated; discount to the US […]

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