Be numerate (and understand accounting) Understand value (the present value of free cash flow) Properly assess strategy (or how a business makes money) Compare effectively (expectations versus fundamentals) Think probabilistically (there are few sure things) Update your views effectively (beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected) Beware of behavioral biases (minimizing […]
“China’s economic expansion languished to its slowest pace in nearly three decades last year, as a bruising trade fight with the U.S. exacerbated weakness in the world’s second-largest economy. The 6.6% growth rate for 2018 reported Monday is the slowest annual pace China has recorded since 1990. The economic downturn, which has been sharper than […]
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2018 loss of -34.2% vs. S&P 500 of -4.4% Since inception, returned 1,367% cumulatively or 12.6% annualized Given the valuations and fundamentals of our 5% or larger positions, we believe they should all do better in 2019 AerCap (AER) – Long 5.8x P/E on 2018 estimates, 65% of book value Leases new and mid-life airplanes […]
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Returned roughly breakeven for the year ended 12/31/18 2018 in Review Major US stock market indices steadily gained ground for the first 3 quarters before plunging in a highly volatile 4th quarter Generally rising share prices moved in tandem with higher corporate earnings, the result of massive fiscal stimulus, large corporate tax cuts, and historically […]
Continue Reading The Ultimate Guide: 2019 Market Outlook (Full Compilation)
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Firefly is an investment partnership focused on fundamental primary research and business analysis Have substantial experience in the natural gas industry, particularly with low-cost Appalachian natural gas producers Over the past 6 years, invested in industry-related public equites and private mineral rights Maintained a significant investment in Gulfport since 2013 Own 8.1% of the outstanding […]
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Yelp has dramatically underperformed with no meaningful accountability to stockholders Underperformed Russell 2000 Technology Index by -117% and its own proxy peer group by -74% over the last 5 years; missed investor expectations in 12 out of the last 19 quarters Board is stale, with no new members added since May 2012; failed to hold […]
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S&P 500 index fell -6.2% by year’s end, down -14.5% from its peak in late September, erasing virtually all of its gain since September 2017 12-month trailing P/E for S&P 500 has fallen from 21.5x at the beginning of 2018 to 16.0x, its lowest valuation multiple in nearly 6 years 9 leading indicators that frequently […]
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Table of Contents Introduction Size of the Distressed and Defaulted Debt Market Distressed Securities Investors Investment Strategies Active Control Investors Active Non-Control Investors Passive Investors Valuation of Distressed Securities Literature Review Measuring and Investing in Defaulted and Distressed Debt Securities Market-to-Face Value Ratios Post-Default Experience Volatility of Defaulted Bond Returns Performance by Seniority Defaulted Loan […]
Continue Reading “An ESL spokesman said in a statement Friday that through an affiliate, Transform Holdco LLC, the firm submitted an offer for roughly 425 Sears stores, for a total value of $4.4 billion… The bid includes a $1.3 billion financing commitment from three financial institutions, ESL said. The banks that agreed to extend the maturity on […]
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